The World Cup is approaching and we are all excited about it, so here’s a round-up of some football stuff that has more or less to do with social science:
- Dan Drezner complains that the United States (and the other real countries) does not dominate world football. (hat tip to Erik Voeten)
- Nate Silver explains what’s behind the Soccer Power Index (SPI). It’s insanely complicated and, quite clearly, it does not pass the sniff test as Switzerland is ranked only 36th, even worse than funny countries like Costa Rica. If someone wants to waste some time, it would be fun to see the correlation with FIFA’s official ranking.
- A mathematician says that the probability that Switzerland wins the World Cup is 1.1%. Now I admit this sounds bad, but I am inclined to reply: so you’re telling me there’s a chance!
- Speaking of math, Ottmar Hitzfeld may want to re-read his John Nash in case Switzerland makes it to a penalty-kick showdown in the final, as it turns out that goalkeepers play mixed strategies.
- Players with exposure to civil war are more likely to do things like these, so watch out.
Feel free to suggest more in the comments!
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Researchers from the Institute of Political Science / University of Tuebingen published a statistical forecast for the WorldCup 2010:
“Who will win the Football World Cup 2010? This is one of the most pressing questions today – even beyond the world of sports. This article offers a prognostic model that goes far beyond Franz Beckenbauers answer on the question: What is your prognosis for the game? “Yes good, there is only one possibility. Victory, Draw or defeat”. Statistical Analyses reveals that – against popular opinions – political and economic, religious and psychological factors are explanatory and that Brasil will defeat Germany in the Final.”
See the study here (In German)
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You can add this comment from the Monkey Cage’s: one more theory…
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2010/06/realism_and_the_world_cup.html